We have already looked at the difference between fundamental and technical analysis of currency trading in our “currency trading success” article, here we will concentrate more on the advantages of technical analysis for currency trading and how to build a successful system.

There are many different methods and tools utilized in technical analysis, but they all rely on the same principles - that price patterns and price trends exist in the market and that they can be identified and turned into profit opportunities.

Technical Analysis in currency trading is based on three core principles:

Markets Discount

The actual price is a reflection of everything known to the market that could possibly have an affect on price movement and includes supply and demand, political factors, and the market sentiment.

The pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, NOT the reasons behind the price movements.

Prices Move in Trends

Prices can move in three directions - they can move up, down or sideways.

Once a trend in any of these directions is in effect it usually, will persist and create a trend.

The market trend is simply defined as the direction of market prices, a concept that is essential to the success of technical analysis in currency trading.

Identifying trends in theory is simple; a price chart will usually indicate the prevailing trend as characterized by a series of waves with obvious peaks and troughs.

It is the direction of these peaks and troughs that constitutes the market trend, if they move up, the trend is bullish, if they move down the trend is bearish and of course if they move sideways then the market is in a period of consolidation.

History Tends to Repeat Itself

To a technical analyst in currency trading, the trader psychology that affects prices is extremely important, as human nature is repetitive and this shows up in repetitive price patterns.

This allows anyone using technical analysis in currency trading to predict where prices are likely to go next and traders can then act upon this information for profit.

The market price reflects everything

Technical analysis in currency trading is primarily concerned with price trends and everything that can possibly affect a currency is reflected in price action.

Technical Indicators

The logic of technical analysis for currency trading is universally accepted, and there are numerous ways to execute technical trading systems, with the huge amount of available indictors used either alone, or in combination.

We will look at the different indicators below and some that have proved highly effective in the technical analysis of currency trading. Any traders, who wish to profit from the currency markets, should consider these indicators.

Trend Indicators

A trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. The easiest way to spot trends is via trend lines, drawn below price lows or above price highs.

While basic trend lines have gone out of fashion in recent years in favor of more complicated indicators, they are still one of the most effective ways to technically analyze currency movements.

Support/Resistance Indicators

Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon reflects basic supply and demand and when prices break above or below significant support or resistance, a big move can follow very quickly.

Again, the best method for spotting and acting on these breaks is the humble trend line.

We believe that trend lines should be the basis on which ANY technical analysis of currencies should be based on - and the indicators below are for confirmation:

Volatility Indicators

Volatility is a general term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations independent of their direction. Generally, changes in volatility tend to lead changes in prices.

One great indicator to use is the Bollinger band.

Any trader should look at Bollinger Bands, as they represent one of the most effective indicators for the technical analysis of currency markets.

Not only is it good for predicting trend movements, but also it is useful for timing entry and exit levels, as well as when to increase or decrease position size.

Cycle Indicators

A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as elections, year-end monetary repatriation etc.

Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market patterns. A good example would be Elliott Wave theory. Cycle indicators however in our view are of little or no use, in the technical analysis of currencies.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over given time periods.

Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is generally highest at the start of a trend and lowest at market turning points.

Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, then an end of movement in the current direction could occur.

If however momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. Examples of momentum indicators include Stochastics, MACD and RSI.

The most effective momentum indictor is the stochastic and using stochastic crossovers to time entry and exit levels, can be highly effective.

Sentiment Indicators

Many technical analysts in currency trading monitor surveys of investor sentiment such as net trader’s positions and bullish consensus.

These indicators attempt to gauge the general attitude of the investment community, to determine whether investors are bearish or bullish.

These indicators are only to be used when extremes of sentiment are reached, either bullish or bearish.

If used in this way, they are one of the most powerful warning signs of significant market turning points and can be used in technical analysis of currency markets to huge effect.

Putting it all Together

Traders make money from the technical analysis of currency markets in many different ways, however we believe that trend lines backed up by just a few additional indicators (to help time market entry exit and stop levels) can be very effective.

The ones we favor are: Bollinger bands, stochastics and market sentiment indicators, as filters for traditional trend lines.

The best way to succeed in technical analysis of currency trading is to use a simple robust system based on trendlines and just a few filter indicators such as the ones above and you will soon find yourself catching the big trends that yield the big profits.



Thanks to Sacha Tarkovsky for contributing this article to our Currency Trading blog:

How to Make Money Online

Supply and demand are the main elements in determining the value of any given currency in currency trading. No matter what currency it is it will always have its ups and downs. The reason behind this is that the main elements are also affected by sub elements or determining factors. There is the political stability and condition, economic standards and maybe the most difficult of all to weigh market psychology.

With all these factors behaving erratically, it is impossible to say that your investment is as good as won. Even the slightest economic turmoil, political view change or rumor can flip your coin to the losing face. There must be something that can offset this chaotic uncertainty.

The answer to that is forex option. This is the number one tip you need to consider when involving yourself to the currency business. This option allows you to gain flexibility in a seemingly rigid investment.

Forex option, as the name goes, is the option given to the buyer. In exchange for an agreed upon premium and nothing else, the buyer gains the right, but not the requirement, to buy currency, at a certain price set at the start, for a given amount of time.

This ensures that whatever happens to the value of the currency the buyer is interested on the loss is managed at the beginning by the premium cost. But if the tides turn in the buyer’s favor then he gets the benefit of buying the currency at the agreed price which he can then sell at the price it is currently running.

Limited loss and a win are the only outcome for this arrangement.



Thanks to Timothy Stevens for contributing this article to our Currency Trading blog:

Trade Foreign Currency Online

The foreign currency exchange gives a platform for the exchange of money from one countrys currency to that of another. As the market with the worlds highest daily turnover with more than $2 trillion being traded by the market, the currency traders in the world out-trade the US stock market, the world’s largest equity market.

A huge contrast to the aforementioned US stock market, is that the forex market relatively unregulated. There is simply no centralized exchange and from the start of the New Zealand open on a Sunday night through to the close of the US session on Friday, the forex market moves 24 hours a day, over 5 days per week.

For the retail trader, deals can be executed through telephone transactions with a forex broker or via the internet - hence “online currency trading”. As a worldwide system made up of banks, institutions (eg conglomerate enterprises) the trading takes place in real time, with transfer of funds approx 2 days later aka the Spot value. The different times of the markets functioning eg. US session, Asia session gives the market a different “personality” - volatility and volume traded during the UK session will be different to that of the Asia session normally.

The Evolution of the Currency Markets (FX)

In earlier times, individual retail investors in the forex market could only gain access through banks using large amounts of capital and would take place for business and investment purposes. The banks would do the business for the client. As time has gone on, trading volumes have dramatically risen, particularly after free floating of exchange rates.

A key commodity, foreign exchange allows enterprises to buy and sell goods with overseas country businesses and services, making a supply and demand component which creates a true market. The bank will try to get the best deal for the business client and so a form of bartering takes place of one currency for another. Trading for speculation also exists within banks, institutions and of course, the retail trader forex market. Any individual can take part in the currency market, provided he or she has some resources and has put time in to learn how to trade and recognise the fine points of trading the currency markets.

As with any investment there are pros and cons. High risk means that, again, like with most investments, you can lose all you invest, and this needs to be taken on board so that money traded is that which can be afforded. There is a lot of talk about forex scam brokerages, (forex scams) and because of the lack of regulation of the forex market, there is an open platform for forex scams in various forms.

There are also advantages such as that a retail trader can learn to trade from an already successful trader through a mentoring program, there are also several good books on online currency trading. It is easy to set up an account with a forex broker, who will normally offer leverage meaning a fraction of what is being traded is actually required as a margin deposit to secure any potential losses on the part of the trader.

To make an income, there must be a variation in the exchange rates between a pair of currencies. The market is liquid and can be volatile. Currencies continuously change against each other in response to world events, financial announcements, professional investor behavior and historical market performance. This happens regardless of the economic conditions in individual countries since each currency affects another. The forex market has been described as the supreme marketplace and is without doubt recession proof.



Thanks to Sam Beatson for contributing this article to our Currency Trading blog:

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